Scenario Modeling: Epistemology, Practice, and Values
University of Geneva
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Description
Scientific policy advice is often based on scenarios produced by elaborate computational models. In recent years, such models have been particularly visible in climate science and infectious disease epidemiology. The practice of scenario modeling raises a range of philosophical and practical issues that are closely related to each other. First, how should we think about the epistemology of scenarios and of the models on which they are based? Consider that we cannot easily judge the empirical credentials of these models by their predictive success, since many of their most useful predictions (such as those about worst-case scenarios) are typically counterfactual. So what is the appropriate relationship between scenario models and their real-world target systems? Second, how do practitioners approach scenario modeling? What are the challenges of developing and exploring scenarios, and of conveying their significance to policy experts or the broader public? What is the role of scenario-based scientific advice in public policy debates, and what should its role be? Third, how do non-epistemic values enter into the production or interpretation of model-based scenarios? Do scenarios offer value-neutral guidance on which we can base our decisions, or are scenarios inherently value-laden? This workshop will bring together both philosophers and empirical scientists in order to discuss these and related questions from a range of different but complementary perspectives.
Speakers
- Igor Douven (Paris)
- Rawad El Skaf (Milano)
- Janne Estill (Geneva)
- Julie Jebeile (Bern)
- Ylwa Sjöling Wirling (Gothenburg)
Venue
Espace Colladon, Rue Jean-Daniel-Colladon 2
Schedule
Workshop Schedule (pdf)
Organizers
Marcel Weber and Raphael Scholl
Online Participation
If you would like to participate remotely, please e-mail Raphael Scholl for a Zoom link by September 2, 2024, at the latest.
22 mai 2024