Paleoclimate modelling of the Permian-Triassic transition

We will perform numerical simulations at the global scale of the Permian-Triassic climate and the rapid icehouse to greenhouse cycles registered in geological data during the Early Triassic. We plan to use the MITgcm, the coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model developed by Marshall & collaborators at MIT. Moreover, we will use the accurate reconstruction of the Permian-Triassic paleogeography produced by Panalesis. First, we will find the climate steady-states (or attractors) that correspond to such a paleogeography at fixed external forcing. Then, we will consider different climate perturbations (volcanism, atmospheric CO2 content, astronomic forcing) that could induce shifts between such attractors.  

We will couple the MITgcm (i.e. atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land and its ocean geochemical module) to other models (vegetation, ice sheets, carbon box models) in order to find the configuration that better reproduce the geological data collected by the other groups participating to the project, and to formulate hypothesis on the possible mechanisms at play during the climate changes. Continuous feedback with the other research groups will verify the degree of agreement between numerical results and geological data, and will suggest how to improve the simulations.